Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$5.79

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 75.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,637

Combined PnL+$7.37

Over3 traders

Total Value$136.79

Total Shares428

Combined PnL-$1.58

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 75.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$71.04	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.6¢	$906.67	$935.79	+$29.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.9¢	$678.16	$576.79	-$100.17
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 75.4¢	$2.5K	$609.63	+$2.78	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1	Underavg 73¢	$556.44	$560.07	+$3.63	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$88.04	$85.2	-$2.84	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$41.22	$43.89	+$2.66	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 69¢	$19.65	$20	+$0.35	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$9.1	$7.7	-$1.4	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 67¢	$6.7	$7	+$0.3	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.9	+$0.3	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.87	+$0.01	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,599.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$71.04

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Under$906.6775.6¢+$29.12

Over$678.1625.9¢-$100.17

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,520.78

Value

$609.63

PnL

+$2.78

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1

Under

Invested

$556.44

Value

$560.07

PnL

+$3.63

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.04

Value

$85.2

PnL

-$2.84

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.22

Value

$43.89

PnL

+$2.66

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$19.65

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.1

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$1.4

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$6.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.01

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.