Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Mavericks (51%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-34.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (75%) · Celtics at 49¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics49¢Mavericks51¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 75%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$29.16

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 49¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics49%

Mavericks51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,018

Combined PnL+$44.66

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,469

Combined PnL-$73.81

Celtics — 75%Mavericks — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Celticsavg 54.1¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$43.62	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
LI LightParadox	Mavericksavg 45.7¢	$854.53	$795.49	-$59.04	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Celticsavg 55.2¢	$577.18	$586.76	+$9.58	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
RN1CTR	Celticsavg 49.4¢	$412.43	$480.13	+$67.7	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Celticsavg 52.1¢	$202.6	$221.67	+$19.07	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
38 38791873984189CTR	Celticsavg 54.2¢	$209.88	$220.59	+$10.71	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9XCTR	Celticsavg 53.6¢	$176.4	$146.27	-$9.9	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
alpheclabs2CTR	Celticsavg 54¢	$123.93	$130.82	+$6.88	45% 389-480 (869)
LI Limousin	Mavericksavg 44¢	$132.16	$127.65	-$4.51	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
VE Venusian	Mavericksavg 46¢	$136.52	$126.25	-$10.27	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
dips.CTR<$100	Celticsavg 14.5¢	$15	$7.23	-$7.77	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Celticsavg 15¢	$15	$7	-$8	57% 4084-3020 (7104)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,546.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$43.62

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

LightParadox

Mavericks

Invested

$854.53

Value

$795.49

PnL

-$59.04

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

6512395314597884CTR

Celtics

Invested

$577.18

Value

$586.76

PnL

+$9.58

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

RN1CTR

Celtics

Invested

$412.43

Value

$480.13

PnL

+$67.7

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

topdogbigboiCTR

Celtics

Invested

$202.6

Value

$221.67

PnL

+$19.07

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

38791873984189CTR

Celtics

Invested

$209.88

Value

$220.59

PnL

+$10.71

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9XCTR

Celtics

Invested

$176.4

Value

$146.27

PnL

-$9.9

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

alpheclabs2CTR

Celtics

Invested

$123.93

Value

$130.82

PnL

+$6.88

Record

45%

389-480 (869)

Limousin

Mavericks

Invested

$132.16

Value

$127.65

PnL

-$4.51

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

Venusian

Mavericks

Invested

$136.52

Value

$126.25

PnL

-$10.27

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

dips.CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$15

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$7.77

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$15

Value

PnL

-$8

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.