Spread: Celtics (-22.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (50%) · Celtics at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics88¢Mavericks12¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$249.55

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 87.5¢

+72% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics88%

Mavericks13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,070

Combined PnL+$545.13

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$344.75

Total Shares2,522

Combined PnL-$794.68

Celtics — 50%Mavericks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Celticsavg 56.6¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$505.45	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 51.7¢	$235.48	$266.48	+$31	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
TO topdogbigboi	Celticsavg 49.5¢	$198	$216	+$18	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 73¢	$278.51	$206.51	-$72	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 73¢	$209.73	$135.03	-$74.7
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 51¢	$68.78	$71.47	+$2.7
MA MadridTimeCTR	Mavericksavg 48.6¢	$377.33	$97.07	-$280.25	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
nigiri99<$100	Celticsavg 27¢	$89.37	$89.37	+$0	51% 793-768 (1561)
LI LimousinCTR	Mavericksavg 45¢	$317.76	$88.19	-$229.57	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Mavericksavg 47.6¢	$315.27	$82.76	-$232.5	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 26¢	$61.36	$57.82	-$3.54	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Celticsavg 27¢	$26.73	$28.21	+$1.48	44% 360-455 (815)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$66.08	$17.21	-$48.87	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 52¢	$45.82	$16.78	-$10.8	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$1.64	$1.69	+$0.05	49% 2930-3029 (5959)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$1,000.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$505.45

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$235.48

Value

$266.48

PnL

+$31

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

topdogbigboi

Celtics

Invested

$198

Value

$216

PnL

+$18

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$278.51

Value

$206.51

PnL

-$72

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Mavericks$209.7373¢-$74.7

Celtics$68.7851¢+$2.7

MadridTimeCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$377.33

Value

$97.07

PnL

-$280.25

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

nigiri99<$100

Celtics

Invested

$89.37

Value

$89.37

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

LimousinCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$317.76

Value

$88.19

PnL

-$229.57

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

LightParadoxCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$315.27

Value

$82.76

PnL

-$232.5

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$61.36

Value

$57.82

PnL

-$3.54

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Forecastication2<$100

Celtics

Invested

$26.73

Value

$28.21

PnL

+$1.48

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

VenusianCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$66.08

Value

$17.21

PnL

-$48.87

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$45.82

Value

$16.78

PnL

-$10.8

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.