Spread: Celtics (-20.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (46%) · Celtics at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics79¢Mavericks21¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 46%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$113.72

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 78.5¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics79%

Mavericks22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,149

Combined PnL+$291.99

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$375.94

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL-$405.72

Celtics — 46%Mavericks — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (13 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrMavericks 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 55.4¢	$521.55	$605.32	+$188.83	55% 2159-1794 (3953)
NO NotJump	Celticsavg 50¢	$525	$561.75	+$36.75	49% 1309-1353 (2662)
RN1	Celticsavg 72.5¢	$381.54	$392.08	+$10.54	54% 6261-5369 (11630)
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 56¢	$84.1	$117.89	+$33.79	50% 4157-4147 (8304)
TO topdogbigboi	Celticsavg 55¢	$80.76	$115.27	+$34.51	39% 1837-2824 (4661)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 20.3¢	$69.34	$86.94	+$17.6	48% 4971-5335 (10306)
LI LimousinCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$198.24	$85.63	-$112.61	38% 1507-2416 (3923)
VE VenusianCTR	Mavericksavg 42.8¢	$181.38	$80.44	-$100.94	39% 1528-2435 (3963)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Mavericksavg 46.7¢	$171.4	$69.79	-$101.61	38% 1525-2471 (3996)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 42¢	$66.08	$29.89	-$36.19	38% 1508-2415 (3923)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 78¢	$75.84	$27.42	-$12.42	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 67¢	$237.08	$21.71	-$72.37	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 19¢	$1.14	$1.53	+$0.39	48% 2753-3004 (5757)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$521.55

Value

$605.32

PnL

+$188.83

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

NotJump

Celtics

Invested

$525

Value

$561.75

PnL

+$36.75

Record

49%

1309-1353 (2662)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$381.54

Value

$392.08

PnL

+$10.54

Record

54%

6261-5369 (11630)

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$84.1

Value

$117.89

PnL

+$33.79

Record

50%

4157-4147 (8304)

topdogbigboi

Celtics

Invested

$80.76

Value

$115.27

PnL

+$34.51

Record

39%

1837-2824 (4661)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$69.34

Value

$86.94

PnL

+$17.6

Record

48%

4971-5335 (10306)

LimousinCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$198.24

Value

$85.63

PnL

-$112.61

Record

38%

1507-2416 (3923)

VenusianCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$181.38

Value

$80.44

PnL

-$100.94

Record

39%

1528-2435 (3963)

LightParadoxCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$171.4

Value

$69.79

PnL

-$101.61

Record

38%

1525-2471 (3996)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$66.08

Value

$29.89

PnL

-$36.19

Record

38%

1508-2415 (3923)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$75.84

Value

$27.42

PnL

-$12.42

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$237.08

Value

$21.71

PnL

-$72.37

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

2753-3004 (5757)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (13 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrMavericks 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.