Spread: Celtics (-18.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (45%) · Celtics at 90¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics90¢Mavericks10¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$197.33

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 90¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics90%

Mavericks10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,148

Combined PnL+$410.04

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$206.32

Total Shares896

Combined PnL-$212.71

Celtics — 45%Mavericks — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 78.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$164	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1	Celticsavg 68¢	$611.27	$827.45	+$216.19	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mavericksavg 17¢	$613.35	$467.29	-$132.93	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 72.7¢	$253.05	$322.15	+$69.09
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 17¢	$328.46	$145.15	-$202.02
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Mavericksavg 55¢	$110	$123	+$13	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
38 38791873984189<$100	Celticsavg 47.1¢	$89.57	$94.14	+$4.57	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TA takeormake<$100	Celticsavg 49¢	$34.79	$64.61	+$29.82	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$36.21	$34.44	-$1.77	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 80¢	$66.76	$33.76	-$4.53	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
VE VenusianCTR	Mavericksavg 45.2¢	$132.16	$21.91	-$110.25	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 38.9¢	$69.88	$12.56	-$57.32	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 46¢	$66.08	$10.06	-$56.02	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.35	-$0.35	38% 1454-2390 (3844)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$1,537.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$164

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$611.27

Value

$827.45

PnL

+$216.19

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$613.35

Value

$467.29

PnL

-$132.93

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Celtics$253.0572.7¢+$69.09

Mavericks$328.4617¢-$202.02

topdogbigboiCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$110

Value

$123

PnL

+$13

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

38791873984189<$100

Celtics

Invested

$89.57

Value

$94.14

PnL

+$4.57

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

takeormake<$100

Celtics

Invested

$34.79

Value

$64.61

PnL

+$29.82

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$36.21

Value

$34.44

PnL

-$1.77

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.76

Value

$33.76

PnL

-$4.53

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

VenusianCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$132.16

Value

$21.91

PnL

-$110.25

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

LimousinCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$69.88

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$57.32

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$66.08

Value

$10.06

PnL

-$56.02

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.