Spread: Celtics (-12.5)

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (31%) · Celtics at 56¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15

Celtics56¢Mavericks44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 31%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

-$70.98

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 56.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics56%

Mavericks44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares12,172

Combined PnL+$191.21

Mavericks11 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares13,996

Combined PnL-$262.18

Celtics — 31%Mavericks — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (15 on Mavericks) disagree here.

whaleMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 73% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Celticsavg 55.4¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$81.63	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
QU QuentinChenCTR	Mavericksavg 46¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$175	6% 10-156 (166)
VeryLucky888	Celticsavg 54¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$92.05	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
HI hi774cCTR	Mavericksavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$42.24	26% 249-695 (944)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.32	48% 720-766 (1486)
OM omnibus-076daa	Celticsavg 55¢	$214.97	$220.83	+$5.86	46% 653-760 (1413)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 45.2¢	$221.54	$213.15	-$8.39	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Celticsavg 53.4¢	$151.94	$159.49	+$7.54	36% 26-47 (73)
OD Oddstorm	Celticsavg 55¢	$150.69	$154.8	+$4.11	36% 140-253 (393)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 45¢	$152.1	$147.03	-$5.07	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
SE sentrioCTR	Mavericksavg 45¢	$126.39	$122.17	-$4.21	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
VE VenusianCTR	Mavericksavg 46¢	$130.18	$121.69	-$8.49	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 46.5¢	$79.72	$74.58	-$5.13	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45.3¢	$35.17	$33.85	-$1.32	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 44.8¢	$33.2	$33.05	-$0.15	56% 679-534 (1213)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 43¢	$11.94	$12.08	+$0.14	39% 234-370 (604)

HomeRunHazard

Celtics

Invested

$4,448.94

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$81.63

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

QuentinChenCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$3,220

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$175

Record

10-156 (166)

VeryLucky888

Celtics

Invested

$1,988.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$92.05

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

hi774cCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,267.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$42.24

Record

26%

249-695 (944)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,084

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.32

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

omnibus-076daa

Celtics

Invested

$214.97

Value

$220.83

PnL

+$5.86

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$221.54

Value

$213.15

PnL

-$8.39

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Celtics

Invested

$151.94

Value

$159.49

PnL

+$7.54

Record

36%

26-47 (73)

Oddstorm

Celtics

Invested

$150.69

Value

$154.8

PnL

+$4.11

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$152.1

Value

$147.03

PnL

-$5.07

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

sentrioCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$126.39

Value

$122.17

PnL

-$4.21

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

VenusianCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$130.18

Value

$121.69

PnL

-$8.49

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$79.72

Value

$74.58

PnL

-$5.13

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$35.17

Value

$33.85

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$33.2

Value

$33.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$11.94

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (15 on Mavericks) disagree here.

whaleMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 73% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.