Spread: Celtics (-11.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (27%) · Celtics at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Celtics61¢Mavericks39¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$6.72

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 61¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics61%

Mavericks39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,553

Combined PnL-$24.68

Mavericks8 traders

Total Value$752.17

Total Shares1,954

Combined PnL+$17.96

Celtics — 27%Mavericks — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH ch27er	Celticsavg 63.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$47.54	36% 36-63 (99)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Celticsavg 57¢	$324.9	$347.7	+$22.8	36% 26-47 (73)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 36.5¢	$216.7	$228.69	+$11.99	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Celticsavg 57¢	$279.18	$204.14	-$5.26	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 57¢	$116.95	$125.15	+$8.21
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 43¢	$88.22	$78.99	-$13.47
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 37¢	$153.92	$160.16	+$6.24	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
FO forecastication4CTR	Mavericksavg 36¢	$125.48	$134.2	+$8.71	36% 210-368 (578)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Mavericksavg 40.8¢	$119.58	$112.85	-$6.73	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 37.7¢	$53.52	$54.67	+$1.15	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 40¢	$40	$38.5	-$1.5	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 41.7¢	$36.6	$15.4	-$1.2	56% 695-541 (1236)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 42¢	$8.4	$7.7	-$0.7	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Celticsavg 61¢	$7.32	$7.38	+$0.06	69% 1742-781 (2523)

ch27er

Celtics

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$47.54

Record

36%

36-63 (99)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Celtics

Invested

$324.9

Value

$347.7

PnL

+$22.8

Record

36%

26-47 (73)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$216.7

Value

$228.69

PnL

+$11.99

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$279.18

Value

$204.14

PnL

-$5.26

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

Both legs:

Celtics$116.9557¢+$8.21

Mavericks$88.2243¢-$13.47

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$153.92

Value

$160.16

PnL

+$6.24

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

forecastication4CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$125.48

Value

$134.2

PnL

+$8.71

Record

36%

210-368 (578)

SnakeBallCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$119.58

Value

$112.85

PnL

-$6.73

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$53.52

Value

$54.67

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$40

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$36.6

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

695-541 (1236)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$8.4

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.7

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

SunlineTicker<$100

Celtics

Invested

$7.32

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.06

Record

69%

1742-781 (2523)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.