Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 249.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$0.5

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 95.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL-$8.58

Over4 traders

Total Value$49.38

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL+$8.08

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 97¢	$993.99	$983.48	-$10.51	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 93¢	$52.08	$53.76	+$1.68	49% 692-733 (1425)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$20	$29.67	+$9.67	60% 2613-1718 (4331)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$10	$14.83	+$4.83	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 93¢	$7.88	$8.13	+$0.25	55% 680-552 (1232)
balthazarCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$11.2	$4.8	-$6.4	51% 4761-4565 (9326)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$0.11	$0.09	-$0.02	50% 3301-3257 (6558)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$993.99

Value

$983.48

PnL

-$10.51

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$52.08

Value

$53.76

PnL

+$1.68

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$9.67

Record

60%

2613-1718 (4331)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$4.83

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.88

Value

$8.13

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

balthazarCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.2

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$6.4

Record

51%

4761-4565 (9326)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.