Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 82¢ · $789 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$788.66
-$12.13
84.9¢ → 81.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 86.3¢ | $559.45 | $546.06 | -$13.39 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 80¢ | $196.37 | $197.53 | +$1.16 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $43.5 | $43.5 | +$0 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $0.49 | $0.85 | +$0.36 | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $0.97 | $0.71 | -$0.26 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
RN1Invested
$559.45
Value
$546.06
PnL
-$13.39
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$196.37
Value
$197.53
PnL
+$1.16
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$43.5
Value
$43.5
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$0.36
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.26
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.