Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$38.94

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 86.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,152

Combined PnL+$87.44

Over1 trader

Total Value$86.46

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$48.5

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 82¢	$939.83	$856.41	-$83.42	55% 719-584 (1303)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 66.6¢	$516.42	$670.97	+$154.55	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 18¢	$222	$265.71	+$43.71	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Over leg	Overavg 18¢	$180	$205	+$25
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$42	$60.71	+$18.71
RN1	Underavg 84¢	$241.83	$227.79	-$14.04	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 32¢	$134.97	$86.46	-$48.5	53% 290-259 (549)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 55¢	$59.05	$83.07	+$24.01	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 55¢	$18.64	$24.98	+$6.33	49% 693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$939.83

Value

$856.41

PnL

-$83.42

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$516.42

Value

$670.97

PnL

+$154.55

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$222

Value

$265.71

PnL

+$43.71

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Invested

$241.83

Value

$227.79

PnL

-$14.04

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$134.97

Value

$86.46

PnL

-$48.5

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$59.05

Value

$83.07

PnL

+$24.01

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$18.64

Value

$24.98

PnL

+$6.33

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.