Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 31¢ · $169 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$169.39
-$2.29
Research grade
AvoidOver at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $79.05 | $93.21 | +$14.16 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 79.3¢ | $44.43 | $38.92 | -$5.51 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Overavg 32.9¢ | $39.17 | $23.85 | -$15.33 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $7.77 | $11.47 | +$3.7 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $1.26 | $1.95 | +$0.69 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
Invested
$79.05
Value
$93.21
PnL
+$14.16
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
RN1<$100Invested
$44.43
Value
$38.92
PnL
-$5.51
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$39.17
Value
$23.85
PnL
-$15.33
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$11.47
PnL
+$3.7
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.69
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.