Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$111.55

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 77.5¢

+44% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$766.74

Total Shares995

Combined PnL+$230.65

Over3 traders

Total Value$158.84

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$119.1

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Underavg 54¢	$518.4	$744	+$225.6	37% 121-203 (324)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$739.24	$621.59	-$117.65	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$441.6	$336	-$105.6
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.7¢	$297.64	$285.59	-$12.05
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$214.55	$203.25	-$11.3	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$104.55	$133.25	+$28.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$110	$70	-$40
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$108.1	$111.1	+$3	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$66.3	$84.5	+$18.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$41.8	$26.6	-$15.2
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 49¢	$220.24	$104.93	-$110.19	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$39.98	$39.1	-$0.88	49% 693-734 (1427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$17.69	$22.74	+$5.05	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$22.84	$14.81	-$8.04	53% 290-259 (549)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$518.4

Value

$744

PnL

+$225.6

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$739.24

Value

$621.59

PnL

-$117.65

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$441.646¢-$105.6

Under$297.6467.7¢-$12.05

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$214.55

Value

$203.25

PnL

-$11.3

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Under$104.5551¢+$28.7

Over$11055¢-$40

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$108.1

Value

$111.1

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Invested

$220.24

Value

$104.93

PnL

-$110.19

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.98

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$0.88

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$17.69

Value

$22.74

PnL

+$5.05

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.84

Value

$14.81

PnL

-$8.04

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.