Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 42¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$134.42

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 42¢

-14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$913.66

Total Shares2,136

Combined PnL-$124.31

Over7 traders

Total Value$463.53

Total Shares952

Combined PnL-$10.11

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 46¢	$646.3	$611.18	-$35.13	14% 77-472 (549)
RN1CTR	Underavg 57.1¢	$312.4	$224.27	-$88.13	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 38.7¢	$127.65	$132	+$4.35	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 55.6¢	$133.95	$130.03	-$3.92	55% 718-583 (1301)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 56¢	$79.17	$79.94	+$0.76	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$76.12	$75.23	-$0.89	31% 407-907 (1314)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 53¢	$59.36	$58.24	-$1.12	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 48.9¢	$70.16	$46.07	-$9.74	49% 684-724 (1408)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 43¢	$14.96	$14.43	-$0.52	31% 405-886 (1291)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.82	+$0.07	33% 317-631 (948)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.18	-$0.13	31% 406-905 (1311)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$0.85	$0.81	-$0.05	52% 490-447 (937)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$646.3

Value

$611.18

PnL

-$35.13

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$312.4

Value

$224.27

PnL

-$88.13

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$127.65

Value

$132

PnL

+$4.35

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$133.95

Value

$130.03

PnL

-$3.92

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$79.17

Value

$79.94

PnL

+$0.76

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.12

Value

$75.23

PnL

-$0.89

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$59.36

Value

$58.24

PnL

-$1.12

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$70.16

Value

$46.07

PnL

-$9.74

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$14.96

Value

$14.43

PnL

-$0.52

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.07

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.