Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 40¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$208.7

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 39.5¢

-25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$909

Total Shares1,959

Combined PnL-$208.7

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 57¢	$613.31	$439.92	-$173.39	55% 718-583 (1301)
RN1CTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$199.1	$221.92	+$22.81	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 58¢	$210.91	$161.41	-$40.5	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$147.61	$106.89	-$43.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$51.7	$54.52	+$2.82
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 42¢	$126.21	$117.2	-$9.01	31% 405-886 (1291)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 55¢	$142.01	$94.24	-$47.77	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$87.87	$81.43	-$6.44	49% 684-724 (1408)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.2¢	$57.45	$56.73	-$0.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.5¢	$30.42	$24.7	-$5.72
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$21.1	$20.33	-$0.77	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$7.6	$7.7	+$0.1	55% 658-540 (1198)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$8.36	$7.7	-$0.66	31% 406-905 (1311)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$613.31

Value

$439.92

PnL

-$173.39

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$199.1

Value

$221.92

PnL

+$22.81

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$210.91

Value

$161.41

PnL

-$40.5

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Over$147.6158¢-$43.32

Under$51.755¢+$2.82

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$126.21

Value

$117.2

PnL

-$9.01

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$142.01

Value

$94.24

PnL

-$47.77

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$87.87

Value

$81.43

PnL

-$6.44

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Both legs:

Under$57.4553.2¢-$0.72

Over$30.4258.5¢-$5.72

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.1

Value

$20.33

PnL

-$0.77

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.36

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.66

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.