Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 33¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$164.13

Smart Money Entry

40.1¢ → 32.5¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$829.14

Total Shares1,633

Combined PnL+$174.05

Over1 trader

Total Value$30.38

Total Shares62

Combined PnL-$9.92

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 64.8¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$173.66	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.8¢	$817	$617.86	-$199.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$590.74	$616.22	+$25.48
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 36.6¢	$443.69	$617.2	+$173.5	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$341.22	$255.65	+$75.22	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.3¢	$117.52	$160.86	+$85.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.1¢	$105.35	$94.79	-$10.57
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 67¢	$232.8	$202.02	-$30.78	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$96	$102	+$6
└ Over leg	Overavg 67¢	$136.81	$100.02	-$36.78
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51¢	$198.04	$198.04	+$0	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 65.8¢	$81.94	$55.99	-$13.7	49% 692-733 (1425)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.3¢	$27.13	$28.05	-$4.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 65.8¢	$37.54	$27.94	-$9.6
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 65¢	$40.3	$30.38	-$9.92	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36.5¢	$13.36	$13.91	+$0.55	55% 680-552 (1232)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,407.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$173.66

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$81764.8¢-$199.14

Under$590.7448.9¢+$25.48

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$443.69

Value

$617.2

PnL

+$173.5

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$341.22

Value

$255.65

PnL

+$75.22

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Both legs:

Over$117.5249.3¢+$85.79

Under$105.3536.1¢-$10.57

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$232.8

Value

$202.02

PnL

-$30.78

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Both legs:

Under$9648¢+$6

Over$136.8167¢-$36.78

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$198.04

Value

$198.04

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$81.94

Value

$55.99

PnL

-$13.7

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Both legs:

Under$27.1349.3¢-$4.1

Over$37.5465.8¢-$9.6

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$40.3

Value

$30.38

PnL

-$9.92

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.36

Value

$13.91

PnL

+$0.55

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.