Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$186.8
82¢ → 71.5¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-60 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 81.2¢ | $807.49 | $711.05 | -$96.44 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $694.64 | $708.35 | +$13.71 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 73¢ | $446.9 | $468.32 | +$21.43 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 24.3¢ | $247.75 | $240.03 | -$7.72 | |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 36.7¢ | $292 | $226.56 | -$65.44 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 86¢ | $159.56 | $145.64 | -$13.91 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.3¢ | $23.44 | $1.71 | -$8.68 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $2.42 | $1.17 | -$1.25 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $2.14 | $1.07 | -$1.07 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
Invested
$807.49
Value
$711.05
PnL
-$96.44
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$694.64
Value
$708.35
PnL
+$13.71
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$292
Value
$226.56
PnL
-$65.44
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$159.56
Value
$145.64
PnL
-$13.91
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$23.44
Value
$1.71
PnL
-$8.68
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$1.25
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$2.14
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$1.07
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.