Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (84%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 16¢ · $516 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$516.08
$148.58
21.3¢ → 16¢
-25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 19¢ | $190 | $340 | +$150 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 66¢ | $95.7 | $120.35 | +$24.65 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $60.18 | $28.32 | -$31.86 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $21.12 | $26.56 | +$5.44 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $0.5 | $0.85 | +$0.35 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
Invested
$190
Value
$340
PnL
+$150
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$95.7
Value
$120.35
PnL
+$24.65
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$60.18
Value
$28.32
PnL
-$31.86
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$21.12
Value
$26.56
PnL
+$5.44
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$0.35
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.