Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 88¢ · $456 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 20%
1 arb excluded
$456.1
$35.82
Research grade
AvoidOver at 88%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 75¢ | $249 | $285.52 | +$36.52 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $190.41 | $132.95 | -$42.12 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 87¢ | $102.66 | $102.66 | +$0 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 25¢ | $58.25 | $30.29 | -$42.12 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 13.4¢ | $30.43 | $31.64 | +$1.22 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $4.93 | $4.01 | -$0.92 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $1.81 | $1.39 | -$0.43 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 25.7¢ | $1.16 | $0.59 | -$0.58 | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
Invested
$249
Value
$285.52
PnL
+$36.52
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$190.41
Value
$132.95
PnL
-$42.12
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.43
Value
$31.64
PnL
+$1.22
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$4.01
PnL
-$0.92
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$0.43
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$0.58
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.