Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 195.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 3.5¢ · $108 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$107.67
$9.24
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 89.1¢ | $51.67 | $55.97 | +$4.3 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $18.58 | $27.87 | +$9.29 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $16.32 | $16.28 | -$0.04 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $10.45 | $5.53 | -$4.93 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $1.06 | $1.59 | +$0.53 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $0.21 | $0.37 | +$0.16 | 19% 50-220 (270) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $0.14 | $0.07 | -$0.08 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
RN1<$100Invested
$51.67
Value
$55.97
PnL
+$4.3
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$18.58
Value
$27.87
PnL
+$9.29
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$16.32
Value
$16.28
PnL
-$0.04
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$10.45
Value
$5.53
PnL
-$4.93
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.59
PnL
+$0.53
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.37
PnL
+$0.16
Record
19%
50-220 (270)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.08
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.