Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 80¢ · $963 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
6
Knicks 50%
$962.6
-$147.8
69.9¢ → 79.5¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Knicksavg 69¢ | $690 | $655 | -$35 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Cavaliersavg 31¢ | $310 | $205 | -$105 | 53% 290-259 (549) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Knicksavg 77¢ | $82.25 | $74 | -$8.25 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Knicksavg 76.8¢ | $20.78 | $18.66 | -$2.11 | 39% 395-620 (1015) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 23¢ | $5.02 | $6.77 | +$1.75 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 23¢ | $2.35 | $3.17 | +$0.82 | 31% 411-924 (1335) |
Invested
$690
Value
$655
PnL
-$35
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$310
Value
$205
PnL
-$105
Record
53%
290-259 (549)
Invested
$82.25
Value
$74
PnL
-$8.25
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$20.78
Value
$18.66
PnL
-$2.11
Record
39%
395-620 (1015)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$6.77
PnL
+$1.75
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$3.17
PnL
+$0.82
Record
31%
411-924 (1335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.