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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Knicks — but Cavaliers won instead.

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Resolved Cavaliers. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Knicks. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Knicks 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$687.78

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers100%

Knicks0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,376

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,367

Combined PnL+$970.58

Knicks — 60%Cavaliers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Knicksavg 73.4¢	$1.7K	$598.12	$-1.1K	53% 290-259 (549)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 73.4¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 23¢	$137.57	$598.12	+$460.55
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Knicksavg 69.2¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	55% 750-604 (1354)
TA takeormake	Cavaliersavg 24.8¢	$320.11	$1.3K	+$969.89	58% 3218-2312 (5530)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Knicksavg 75.4¢	$785.56	$251.06	-$534.5	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 75.4¢	$711.28	—	-$711.28
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 29.6¢	$74.28	$251.06	+$176.78
RN1ARB<$100	Knicksavg 76¢	$271.64	$250	-$21.64	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 36¢	$90	$250	+$160
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 76¢	$181.64	—	-$181.64
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	Cavaliersavg 99.1¢	$76.31	$77	+$0.69	90% 43-5 (48)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Knicksavg 77¢	$44.87	—	-$44.87	—
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Knicksavg 77¢	$28.57	—	-$28.57	—

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Invested

$1,713.43

Value

$598.12

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Both legs:

Knicks$1,575.8673.4¢$-1.6K

Cavaliers$137.5723¢+$460.55

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$1,584.92

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

55%

750-604 (1354)

Invested

$320.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$969.89

Record

58%

3218-2312 (5530)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$785.56

Value

$251.06

PnL

-$534.5

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

Both legs:

Knicks$711.2875.4¢-$711.28

Cavaliers$74.2829.6¢+$176.78

Invested

$271.64

Value

$250

PnL

-$21.64

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$9036¢+$160

Knicks$181.6476¢-$181.64

MarquisDeMott<$100

Invested

$76.31

Value

$77

PnL

+$0.69

Record

90%

43-5 (48)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$44.87

Value

—

PnL

-$44.87

Record

—

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$28.57

Value

—

PnL

-$28.57

Record

—

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x615fbd74...66e9ff

Slug

nba-cle-nyk-2026-11-11-spread-away-4pt5

Traders in this Market

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Arbitrage — excluded

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Knicks — $0

takeormake

Cavaliers — $1.3K

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

RN1

Arbitrage — excluded

MarquisDeMott

Cavaliers — $77

ferdinand2

Knicks — $0

suntori

Knicks — $0

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