Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (63%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (67%) · Cavaliers at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Cavaliers38¢Knicks62¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$67.94

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 37.5¢

-23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers38%

Knicks63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$797.5

Total Shares1,667

Combined PnL-$14.7

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$317.51

Total Shares690

Combined PnL-$53.25

Cavaliers — 67%Knicks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$338.98	$366.1	+$27.12	53% 290-259 (549)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Knicksavg 52.2¢	$317.06	$279.5	-$37.56	55% 719-584 (1303)
RN1CTR	Cavaliersavg 49.1¢	$235.06	$179.35	-$55.71	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$100	$108	+$8	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$61.02	$65.9	+$4.88	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 44¢	$63.19	$53.86	-$9.33	31% 412-918 (1330)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Knicksavg 65.5¢	$42.35	$29.73	-$12.62	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 31¢	$13.95	$24.3	+$10.35	31% 410-923 (1333)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 63¢	$11.34	$8.28	-$3.06	49% 692-733 (1425)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$338.98

Value

$366.1

PnL

+$27.12

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Knicks

Invested

$317.06

Value

$279.5

PnL

-$37.56

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

RN1CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$235.06

Value

$179.35

PnL

-$55.71

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

6512395314597884CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$100

Value

$108

PnL

+$8

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$61.02

Value

$65.9

PnL

+$4.88

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$63.19

Value

$53.86

PnL

-$9.33

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

Flaznorp<$100

Knicks

Invested

$42.35

Value

$29.73

PnL

-$12.62

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$13.95

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$10.35

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$11.34

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$3.06

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.