Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 77¢ · $916 held · ended Nov 14

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$916.01

Combined PnL

$617.38

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 77¢

+88% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$420.3

Total Shares728

Combined PnL+$628.68

Under2 traders

Total Value$18.99

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$11.3

Over — 78%Under — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 61.6¢	$815.27	$476.72	-$338.55	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.6¢	$697.58	$265.98	-$431.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.7¢	$117.69	$210.73	+$93.04
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 32.5¢	$326.36	$124.4	+$596.71	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Overavg 37¢	$86.71	$77.33	-$9.37	70% 1712-741 (2453)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 37.2¢	$28.96	$68.16	+$39.2	37% 819-1385 (2204)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 74¢	$79.22	$65.27	-$13.95	44% 418-527 (945)
RN1<$100	Overavg 31.9¢	$34.17	$54.11	+$19.94	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 37¢	$32.93	$29.37	-$3.56	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 69¢	$25.53	$12.76	-$12.77	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 60.4¢	$4.76	$6.23	+$1.47	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.65	-$0.3	43% 915-1235 (2150)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$815.27

Value

$476.72

PnL

-$338.55

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Both legs:

Under$697.5861.6¢-$431.59

Over$117.6942.7¢+$93.04

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$326.36

Value

$124.4

PnL

+$596.71

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

SunlineTicker<$100

Over

Invested

$86.71

Value

$77.33

PnL

-$9.37

Record

70%

1712-741 (2453)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$28.96

Value

$68.16

PnL

+$39.2

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$79.22

Value

$65.27

PnL

-$13.95

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$34.17

Value

$54.11

PnL

+$19.94

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$32.93

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$3.56

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.53

Value

$12.76

PnL

-$12.77

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.76

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$1.47

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.3

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.