Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 217.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (79%) · Under at 54¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 10

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 79%

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

-$29.27

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares25,542

Combined PnL+$329.32

Under11 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares25,295

Combined PnL-$358.59

Over — 21%Under — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 45¢	$9.0K	$9.3K	+$298.97	0% 0-42 (42)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.8¢	$8.6K	$8.4K	-$210.49	30% 29-67 (96)
HI hi774c	Underavg 55¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$119.03	3% 9-250 (259)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 46¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$29.74	42% 28-38 (66)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 54¢	$389.02	$385.42	-$3.6	45% 38-47 (85)
AN Anon455	Underavg 55¢	$275	$267.5	-$7.5	47% 82-92 (174)
GC GC-P	Underavg 55¢	$233.35	$231.43	-$4.77	5% 11-190 (201)
NM NM-P	Underavg 55¢	$192.5	$187.25	-$5.25	6% 11-164 (175)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 55¢	$173.63	$169.04	-$4.59	49% 388-405 (793)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 54¢	$135.54	$134.29	-$1.25	52% 242-227 (469)
RN1	Underavg 54¢	$135	$133.75	-$1.25	54% 235-203 (438)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 54.4¢	$47.89	$47.08	-$0.81	48% 174-190 (364)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$19.14	$9.67	+$0.61	53% 87-77 (164)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.68	-$0.02	19% 44-191 (235)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$8,959.28

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$298.97

Record

0-42 (42)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,611.86

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$210.49

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$4,326.81

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$119.03

Record

9-250 (259)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$2,583.87

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$29.74

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$389.02

Value

$385.42

PnL

-$3.6

Record

45%

38-47 (85)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$275

Value

$267.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$233.35

Value

$231.43

PnL

-$4.77

Record

11-190 (201)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$192.5

Value

$187.25

PnL

-$5.25

Record

11-164 (175)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$173.63

Value

$169.04

PnL

-$4.59

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$135.54

Value

$134.29

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

RN1

Under

Invested

$135

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$47.89

Value

$47.08

PnL

-$0.81

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.14

Value

$9.67

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.