Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 213.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 44¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$10.1K
-$181.86
46.9¢ → 43.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $4.7K | $4.5K | -$251.54 | 8% 2-23 (25) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$25.08 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Overavg 53.2¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$103.4 | 0% 0-42 (42) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $161 | $155.75 | -$5.25 | 6% 11-164 (175) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $161 | $155.75 | -$5.25 | 5% 11-190 (201) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $36.57 | $38.3 | +$1.73 | 42% 28-38 (66) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $24.13 | $24.37 | -$0.49 | 53% 87-77 (164) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $25 | $13.88 | +$0.63 | 48% 174-190 (364) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,730.52
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$251.54
Record
8%
2-23 (25)
Invested
$2,757.5
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$25.08
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
Invested
$2,357.89
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$103.4
Record
0%
0-42 (42)
Invested
$161
Value
$155.75
PnL
-$5.25
Record
6%
11-164 (175)
Invested
$161
Value
$155.75
PnL
-$5.25
Record
5%
11-190 (201)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$36.57
Value
$38.3
PnL
+$1.73
Record
42%
28-38 (66)
Invested
$24.13
Value
$24.37
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
87-77 (164)
Invested
$25
Value
$13.88
PnL
+$0.63
Record
48%
174-190 (364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.