Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 211.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$384.76

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 94.5¢

+42% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,286

Combined PnL+$368.55

Under6 traders

Total Value$472.36

Total Shares1,333

Combined PnL+$16.21

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 66.8¢	$749.97	$1.1K	+$321.14	52% 271-247 (518)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 35¢	$309.81	$323.09	+$13.28	47% 83-92 (175)
RN1	Overavg 66¢	$104.94	$151.85	+$46.91	54% 248-213 (461)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$62.9	$62.05	-$0.85	30% 29-67 (96)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$56.07	$59.21	+$3.14	48% 130-141 (271)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$21.08	$21.98	+$0.9	49% 398-410 (808)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$4.58	$4.52	-$0.06	48% 179-191 (370)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$3.25	+$0.5	52% 190-176 (366)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.5	-$0.2	53% 100-87 (187)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$749.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$321.14

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$309.81

Value

$323.09

PnL

+$13.28

Record

47%

83-92 (175)

RN1

Over

Invested

$104.94

Value

$151.85

PnL

+$46.91

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.9

Value

$62.05

PnL

-$0.85

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.07

Value

$59.21

PnL

+$3.14

Record

48%

130-141 (271)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.08

Value

$21.98

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.58

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

100-87 (187)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.