Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Cavaliers — but Hornets won instead.
Spread: Hornets (-8.5)
Resolved Hornets. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Cavaliers. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Cavaliers 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$464.82
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Hornetsavg 68.3¢ | $1.5K | $825.4 | +$204.44 | 53% 330-294 (624) |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 68.3¢ | $563.92 | $825.4 | +$261.43 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 8¢ | $56.97 | — | -$56.99 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Hornetsavg 41¢ | $194.99 | $999.98 | +$804.98 | 28% 121-308 (429) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Cavaliersavg 30.7¢ | $817.88 | — | -$257.09 | 57% 104-80 (184) |
LI Limousin | Hornetsavg 42¢ | $159.95 | $159.95 | +$92.77 | 26% 127-363 (490) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Cavaliersavg 59¢ | $1.8K | — | -$164.63 | 53% 214-189 (403) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 59¢ | $17.79 | — | -$11.22 | 52% 287-270 (557) |
Invested
$1,538.44
Value
$825.4
PnL
+$204.44
Record
53%
330-294 (624)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.99
Value
$999.98
PnL
+$804.98
Record
28%
121-308 (429)
Invested
$817.88
Value
—
PnL
-$257.09
Record
57%
104-80 (184)
Invested
$159.95
Value
$159.95
PnL
+$92.77
Record
26%
127-363 (490)
Invested
$1,765.85
Value
—
PnL
-$164.63
Record
53%
214-189 (403)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$17.79
Value
—
PnL
-$11.22
Record
52%
287-270 (557)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Hornets — $999.98
0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375
CTRCavaliers — $0
Limousin
Hornets — $159.95
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
CTRCavaliers — $0
RN1
CTRCavaliers — $0