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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Cavaliers — but Hornets won instead.
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)
Resolved Hornets. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Cavaliers. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Cavaliers 20%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.6K
Combined PnL
$251.16
Smart Money Signal
Cavaliers
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Hornets100%
Cavaliers0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Hornets4 traders
Total Value$1.4K
Total Shares1,364
Combined PnL+$989.81
Cavaliers1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,680
Combined PnL-$738.66
Hornets — 80%Cavaliers — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Hornetsavg 27¢ | $350.73 | $1.3K | +$948.27 | 57% 104-80 (184) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Cavaliersavg 25.3¢ | $1.7K | $259 | -$348.55 | 53% 330-294 (624) |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 25.3¢ | $366.27 | — | -$366.38 | |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 93.1¢ | $241.15 | $259 | +$17.83 | |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Hornetsavg 20¢ | $16.58 | $49.5 | +$32.92 | 26% 121-344 (465) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Cavaliersavg 43.9¢ | $2.3K | — | -$738.66 | 53% 214-189 (403) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Hornetsavg 56¢ | $4.15 | $10 | +$5.85 | 28% 121-308 (429) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Hornetsavg 21¢ | $2.23 | $5 | +$2.78 | 27% 128-350 (478) |
0X
0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375Invested
$350.73
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$948.27
Record
57%
104-80 (184)
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$1,706.71
Value
$259
PnL
-$348.55
Record
53%
330-294 (624)
Both legs:
Cavaliers$366.2725.3¢-$366.38
Hornets$241.1593.1¢+$17.83
MA
MadridTime<$100Invested
$16.58
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$32.92
Record
26%
121-344 (465)
0X
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTRInvested
$2,250.43
Value
—
PnL
-$738.66
Record
53%
214-189 (403)
KE
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100Invested
$4.15
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.85
Record
28%
121-308 (429)
VE
Venusian<$100Invested
$2.23
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.78
Record
27%
128-350 (478)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8ea6d292...b886db
Slug
nba-cle-cha-2026-11-09-spread-home-2pt5