Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 249.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 67%
$3.0K
$445.39
75.1¢ → 94¢
+25% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 75.2¢ | $1.7K | $2.1K | +$384.19 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 26¢ | $266.24 | $327.68 | +$20.48 | 46% 8112-9453 (17565) |
 fyrskenCTR | Overavg 26¢ | $130 | $160 | +$10 | 48% 305-324 (629) |
DI dips. | Underavg 74¢ | $128.02 | $140.13 | +$12.11 | 46% 7434-8639 (16073) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 74¢ | $126.54 | $138.51 | +$11.97 | 51% 4308-4133 (8441) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 75.9¢ | $74.02 | $78.98 | +$4.97 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 75.2¢ | $18.8 | $20.25 | +$1.45 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $4.85 | $4.89 | +$0.03 | 57% 17526-13092 (30618) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $1.05 | $1.25 | +$0.2 | 54% 58447-50668 (109115) |
Invested
$1,744.51
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$384.19
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$266.24
Value
$327.68
PnL
+$20.48
Record
46%
8112-9453 (17565)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$130
Value
$160
PnL
+$10
Record
48%
305-324 (629)
Invested
$128.02
Value
$140.13
PnL
+$12.11
Record
46%
7434-8639 (16073)
Invested
$126.54
Value
$138.51
PnL
+$11.97
Record
51%
4308-4133 (8441)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$74.02
Value
$78.98
PnL
+$4.97
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$20.25
PnL
+$1.45
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.89
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
17526-13092 (30618)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
58447-50668 (109115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.