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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Bulls — but Knicks won instead.

Spread: Knicks (-28.5)

Resolved Knicks. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Bulls. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Bulls 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$241.33

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Knicks100%

Bulls0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares871

Combined PnL-$494.68

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$306.1

Total Shares306

Combined PnL+$253.36

Bulls — 60%Knicks — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Knicksavg 50.2¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$407.05	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 50.2¢	$1.3K	$2.5K	+$1.3K
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 80.1¢	$855.89	—	-$855.89
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bullsavg 89.5¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$486.6	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 28.7¢	$446.15	$1.6K	+$1.1K
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 89.5¢	$619.26	—	-$619.26
PA panpidaras1CTR	Bullsavg 56.2¢	$409	—	-$409	48% 247-267 (514)
RN1	Knicksavg 11¢	$27.5	$250	+$222.5	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 55.8¢	$69.14	—	-$69.14	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Knicksavg 45¢	$25.25	$56.1	+$30.86	46% 1416-1675 (3091)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Bullsavg 82.7¢	$16.55	—	-$16.55	59% 31932-22560 (54492)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Invested

$2,129.31

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$407.05

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

Both legs:

Knicks$1,273.4250.2¢+$1.3K

Bulls$855.8980.1¢-$855.89

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,065.4

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$486.6

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Both legs:

Knicks$446.1528.7¢+$1.1K

Bulls$619.2689.5¢-$619.26

Invested

$409

Value

—

PnL

-$409

Record

48%

247-267 (514)

Invested

$27.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$222.5

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Invested

$69.14

Value

—

PnL

-$69.14

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$56.1

PnL

+$30.86

Record

46%

1416-1675 (3091)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$16.55

Value

—

PnL

-$16.55

Record

59%

31932-22560 (54492)

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd1240ede...46ab1f

Slug

nba-chi-nyk-2026-11-04-spread-home-28pt5

Traders in this Market

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Arbitrage — excluded

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

panpidaras1

Bulls — $0

RN1

Knicks — $250

justaluckydude

Bulls — $0

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Knicks — $56.1

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Bulls — $0

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