Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 89¢ · $477 held · ended Nov 15

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$476.61

Combined PnL

$79.35

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 88.5¢

+51% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$233.55

Total Shares267

Combined PnL+$77.07

Over7 traders

Total Value$243.05

Total Shares592

Combined PnL+$2.29

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Underavg 59¢	$139.93	$204.52	+$66.62	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 40.8¢	$115.73	$124.69	+$8.96	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 40¢	$97.24	$106.96	+$9.72	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 56¢	$18.58	$29.03	+$10.45	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$3.5	$4.4	+$0.9	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$14.6	$4.15	-$10.45	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$6.88	$2	-$4.88	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.07	$0.63	-$1.44	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$0.75	$0.22	-$0.54	56% 3778-2937 (6715)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$139.93

Value

$204.52

PnL

+$66.62

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$115.73

Value

$124.69

PnL

+$8.96

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$97.24

Value

$106.96

PnL

+$9.72

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$18.58

Value

$29.03

PnL

+$10.45

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.6

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$10.45

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.88

Value

PnL

-$4.88

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.54

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.