Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 34¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$34.95

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 33.5¢

-40% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$496.15

Total Shares917

Combined PnL-$14

Under6 traders

Total Value$489.83

Total Shares915

Combined PnL+$48.94

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 56¢	$453.32	$441.06	-$12.26	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 50¢	$188.84	$203.13	+$14.29	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
0xheavy888	Underavg 43¢	$171.14	$181.09	+$9.95	56% 566-451 (1017)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 50¢	$62.23	$87.74	+$25.51	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$196.4	$63.85	-$10.09	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$41	$41	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$25.59	$22.85	-$10.09
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$30.22	$27.91	-$2.3	47% 1052-1201 (2253)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$26.6	$27.17	+$0.57	49% 430-443 (873)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 47¢	$10.35	$10.02	-$0.33	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$4.55	-$0.45	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$3.33	$3.3	-$0.03	48% 2318-2517 (4835)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$453.32

Value

$441.06

PnL

-$12.26

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$188.84

Value

$203.13

PnL

+$14.29

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$171.14

Value

$181.09

PnL

+$9.95

Record

56%

566-451 (1017)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$62.23

Value

$87.74

PnL

+$25.51

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$196.4

Value

$63.85

PnL

-$10.09

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

Both legs:

Over$4150¢+$0

Under$25.5956¢-$10.09

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.22

Value

$27.91

PnL

-$2.3

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.6

Value

$27.17

PnL

+$0.57

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.