Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$24.17

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 83¢

+32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,860

Combined PnL+$326.26

Over7 traders

Total Value$490.55

Total Shares2,050

Combined PnL-$350.44

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 64.8¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$291.36	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 35.3¢	$777.14	$276.25	-$280.82	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 37¢	$169.89	$208.42	+$38.52	49% 430-445 (875)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$88.2	$146.6	+$58.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.9¢	$81.69	$61.81	-$19.88
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 62.8¢	$182.8	$154.23	-$28.57	51% 639-619 (1258)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 52¢	$91.36	$96.63	+$5.27	51% 528-501 (1029)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 47¢	$84.34	$91.52	+$26.99	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Underavg 79.2¢	$49.1	$51.46	+$2.36	48% 509-558 (1067)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$66.05	$23.39	-$42.66	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$18.49	$19.18	+$0.68	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$10.5	$12.25	+$1.75	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 80.4¢	$10	$9.39	-$0.61	41% 499-713 (1212)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 41¢	$4.1	$4.7	+$0.6	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 61¢	$4.76	$4.14	-$0.62	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.23	$1.52	+$0.29	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$1.31	$1.11	-$0.2	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,143.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$291.36

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$777.14

Value

$276.25

PnL

-$280.82

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$169.89

Value

$208.42

PnL

+$38.52

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Both legs:

Under$88.237¢+$58.4

Over$81.6950.9¢-$19.88

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$182.8

Value

$154.23

PnL

-$28.57

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$91.36

Value

$96.63

PnL

+$5.27

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$84.34

Value

$91.52

PnL

+$26.99

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

seeeeeeb<$100

Under

Invested

$49.1

Value

$51.46

PnL

+$2.36

Record

48%

509-558 (1067)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.05

Value

$23.39

PnL

-$42.66

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.49

Value

$19.18

PnL

+$0.68

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.5

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$0.61

Record

41%

499-713 (1212)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$0.62

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.