Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (62%) · Over at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 62%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$25.31

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 80¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,479

Combined PnL+$189.06

Under5 traders

Total Value$190.39

Total Shares959

Combined PnL-$214.38

Over — 62%Under — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 60.9¢	$1.0K	$768.66	+$81.31	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 61.7¢	$1.3K	$477.36	+$88.37	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 52.2¢	$108.91	$156.35	+$47.44	51% 528-501 (1029)
TA takeormake	Overavg 54¢	$150.64	$153.43	+$2.79	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
AN Anon455	Overavg 53.5¢	$157.83	$150.56	-$7.27	49% 430-445 (875)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 84¢	$75.93	$55.85	-$20.08	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$130.95	$52.84	-$78.11	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$137.88	$50.71	-$87.17	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
RN1<$100	Overavg 84¢	$37.8	$36.68	-$1.13	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$66.07	$36.04	-$30.03	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$29.99	$30.33	+$0.33	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$41.46	$20.47	-$19.4	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 61¢	$25.76	$13.39	-$2.37	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,027.23

Value

$768.66

PnL

+$81.31

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,255.03

Value

$477.36

PnL

+$88.37

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$108.91

Value

$156.35

PnL

+$47.44

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$150.64

Value

$153.43

PnL

+$2.79

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$157.83

Value

$150.56

PnL

-$7.27

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$75.93

Value

$55.85

PnL

-$20.08

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$130.95

Value

$52.84

PnL

-$78.11

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$137.88

Value

$50.71

PnL

-$87.17

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$37.8

Value

$36.68

PnL

-$1.13

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.07

Value

$36.04

PnL

-$30.03

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.99

Value

$30.33

PnL

+$0.33

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.46

Value

$20.47

PnL

-$19.4

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$25.76

Value

$13.39

PnL

-$2.37

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.