Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (88%) · Bulls at 64¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
8
Bulls 88%
$1.1K
$252.99
25.8¢ → 63.5¢
+146% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Bullsavg 25.7¢ | $515.96 | $562.88 | +$46.92 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
38 38791873984189 | Bullsavg 25.5¢ | $178 | $323.27 | +$188.04 | 47% 3487-3859 (7346) |
 nigiri99 | Bullsavg 26¢ | $144.04 | $155.12 | +$11.08 | 51% 628-592 (1220) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Bullsavg 25.7¢ | $51.56 | $55.84 | +$4.28 | 49% 1751-1796 (3547) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Bullsavg 25¢ | $25 | $28 | +$3 | 34% 169-323 (492) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 48¢ | $8.45 | $8.36 | -$0.09 | 37% 1136-1917 (3053) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Bullsavg 44¢ | $7.86 | $7.95 | +$0.09 | 55% 1734-1418 (3152) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Bullsavg 30¢ | $2.5 | $2.17 | -$0.33 | 38% 1162-1897 (3059) |
Invested
$515.96
Value
$562.88
PnL
+$46.92
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$178
Value
$323.27
PnL
+$188.04
Record
47%
3487-3859 (7346)
nigiri99Invested
$144.04
Value
$155.12
PnL
+$11.08
Record
51%
628-592 (1220)
Invested
$51.56
Value
$55.84
PnL
+$4.28
Record
49%
1751-1796 (3547)
Invested
$25
Value
$28
PnL
+$3
Record
34%
169-323 (492)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.36
PnL
-$0.09
Record
37%
1136-1917 (3053)
Invested
$7.86
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$0.09
Record
55%
1734-1418 (3152)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.17
PnL
-$0.33
Record
38%
1162-1897 (3059)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.