Spread: Timberwolves (-19.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (60%) · Bulls at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves1¢Bulls99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 60%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$160.91

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 98.6¢

+41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves1%

Bulls99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,506

Combined PnL+$422.96

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$42.47

Total Shares1,284

Combined PnL-$262.04

Bulls — 60%Timberwolves — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Bullsavg 61¢	$315.55	$509.62	+$194.07	68% 2656-1243 (3899)
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 92¢	$954.28	$454.18	+$34.05	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 59¢	$228.8	$262.67	+$103.45	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
FO Forecastication2	Bullsavg 61¢	$103.09	$164.35	+$61.26	44% 283-358 (641)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bullsavg 59¢	$70.74	$81.36	+$28.15	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Timberwolvesavg 17.9¢	$986.44	$27.41	-$251.05	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 10.5¢	$18.32	$13.99	-$4.33	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bullsavg 59¢	$10.77	$12.74	+$1.97	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
nigiri99CTR	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$236.71	$0.56	-$6.15	51% 639-619 (1258)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 3¢	$1.02	$0.51	-$0.51	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

purplegatto

Bulls

Invested

$315.55

Value

$509.62

PnL

+$194.07

Record

68%

2656-1243 (3899)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$954.28

Value

$454.18

PnL

+$34.05

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$228.8

Value

$262.67

PnL

+$103.45

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Forecastication2

Bulls

Invested

$103.09

Value

$164.35

PnL

+$61.26

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

Pan9X<$100

Bulls

Invested

$70.74

Value

$81.36

PnL

+$28.15

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$986.44

Value

$27.41

PnL

-$251.05

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$18.32

Value

$13.99

PnL

-$4.33

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

SnakeBall<$100

Bulls

Invested

$10.77

Value

$12.74

PnL

+$1.97

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

nigiri99CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$236.71

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$6.15

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.51

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.