Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (31%) · Timberwolves at 51¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 15

Timberwolves51¢Bulls49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 31%

Total Value

$43.7K

Combined PnL

$19.56

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves51%

Bulls50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$23.4K

Total Shares46,361

Combined PnL+$263.31

Bulls9 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares41,098

Combined PnL-$243.75

Timberwolves — 31%Bulls — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$21.2K	$21.4K	+$232.97	46% 118-141 (259)
nigiri99CTR	Bullsavg 50¢	$18.2K	$18.0K	-$181.96	51% 568-535 (1103)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Bullsavg 52¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$48.01	49% 635-674 (1309)
73 739633786	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$23.87	11% 24-203 (227)
FO Forecastication2	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$702	$709.02	+$7.02	45% 261-317 (578)
GC GC-PCTR	Bullsavg 50¢	$500	$495	-$5	37% 364-613 (977)
VE VenusianCTR	Bullsavg 50¢	$315.34	$312.19	-$3.15	37% 968-1674 (2642)
NM NM-PCTR	Bullsavg 50¢	$250	$247.5	-$2.5	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bullsavg 50¢	$69	$68.31	-$0.69	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
SU suntori<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$56.59	$56.04	-$0.55	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.38	-$0.13	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 50¢	$120.81	$4	-$2.34	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bullsavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.48	+$0.02	41% 700-1011 (1711)

RJW1

Timberwolves

Invested

$21,208.74

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$232.97

Record

46%

118-141 (259)

nigiri99CTR

Bulls

Invested

$18,195.5

Value

$18.0K

PnL

-$181.96

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,248.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$48.01

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

739633786

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,145.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.87

Record

11%

24-203 (227)

Forecastication2

Timberwolves

Invested

$702

Value

$709.02

PnL

+$7.02

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

GC-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$500

Value

$495

PnL

-$5

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

VenusianCTR

Bulls

Invested

$315.34

Value

$312.19

PnL

-$3.15

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

NM-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$250

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$69

Value

$68.31

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

suntori<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$56.59

Value

$56.04

PnL

-$0.55

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$120.81

Value

PnL

-$2.34

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.