Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (31%) · Timberwolves at 54¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 15

Timberwolves54¢Bulls46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 31%

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$251.02

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves54%

Bulls47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares31,917

Combined PnL+$231.95

Bulls11 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares28,857

Combined PnL+$19.07

Timberwolves — 31%Bulls — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Timberwolvesavg 53¢	$7.2K	$7.2K	-$68.11	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Bullsavg 47¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$68.04	49% 635-674 (1309)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Timberwolvesavg 52¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	+$164.56	54% 550-471 (1021)
nehcnehcCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$0	36% 54-95 (149)
RJ RJW1	Timberwolvesavg 51.7¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$122.4	46% 118-141 (259)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bullsavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$27.61	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 48.5¢	$485	$480	-$5	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$326.54	$339.6	+$13.06	41% 26-38 (64)
NM NM-PCTR	Bullsavg 47.3¢	$264.43	$260.23	-$4.2	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR	Bullsavg 47.3¢	$248.5	$244.12	-$4.38	37% 353-603 (956)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bullsavg 49.6¢	$211.27	$204.48	-$6.79	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 49¢	$34.3	$33.6	-$0.7	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	54% 496-419 (915)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Bullsavg 49¢	$9.72	$9.52	-$0.2	46% 492-580 (1072)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Bullsavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.3	-$0.1	54% 286-244 (530)
SU suntori<$100	Timberwolvesavg 53¢	$4.76	$4.8	+$0.04	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Timberwolves

Invested

$7,219.83

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$68.11

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Bulls

Invested

$6,395.84

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$68.04

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Timberwolves

Invested

$5,704.6

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$164.56

Record

54%

550-471 (1021)

nehcnehcCTR

Bulls

Invested

$4,727.04

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

54-95 (149)

RJW1

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,441.66

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$122.4

Record

46%

118-141 (259)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,352.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$27.61

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$485

Value

$480

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Timberwolves

Invested

$326.54

Value

$339.6

PnL

+$13.06

Record

41%

26-38 (64)

NM-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$264.43

Value

$260.23

PnL

-$4.2

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$248.5

Value

$244.12

PnL

-$4.38

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

38791873984189CTR

Bulls

Invested

$211.27

Value

$204.48

PnL

-$6.79

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$34.3

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$0.7

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

suntori<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.