Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (53%) · Bulls at 80¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves20¢Bulls80¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 80¢

+108% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves20%

Bulls80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,612

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$596.94

Total Shares3,525

Combined PnL-$174.31

Bulls — 53%Timberwolves — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 39.2¢	$999.89	$856.51	+$854.62	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 32.1¢	$646.39	$849.32	+$236.92	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 37¢	$300.81	$670.72	+$385.41
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 32.1¢	$327.08	$178.59	-$148.49
SU SunlineTicker	Bullsavg 34¢	$299.2	$739.2	+$440	70% 1725-752 (2477)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Timberwolvesavg 18¢	$248.94	$221.28	-$27.66	37% 447-766 (1213)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 46¢	$115	$206.25	+$91.25	49% 588-623 (1211)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Timberwolvesavg 22¢	$263.78	$191.84	-$71.94	51% 528-501 (1029)
SN SnakeBall	Bullsavg 37¢	$85.8	$182.48	+$96.67	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 37.4¢	$288.35	$111.68	+$246.36	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
TA takeormake<$100	Bullsavg 61¢	$54.9	$71.1	+$16.2	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 20¢	$79.93	$63.94	-$15.99	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Timberwolvesavg 58¢	$121.19	$54.32	-$66.86	41% 26-38 (64)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 42¢	$66.07	$33.04	-$33.03	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 21.4¢	$91.67	$18.44	+$42.93	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
balthazar<$100	Bullsavg 32¢	$6.4	$16.8	+$10.4	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 18¢	$15.84	$14.08	-$1.76	46% 877-1050 (1927)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bullsavg 42¢	$2.1	$3.95	+$1.85	42% 740-1034 (1774)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$999.89

Value

$856.51

PnL

+$854.62

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$646.39

Value

$849.32

PnL

+$236.92

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Bulls$300.8137¢+$385.41

Timberwolves$327.0832.1¢-$148.49

SunlineTicker

Bulls

Invested

$299.2

Value

$739.2

PnL

+$440

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

SlickRick123CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$248.94

Value

$221.28

PnL

-$27.66

Record

37%

447-766 (1213)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$115

Value

$206.25

PnL

+$91.25

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$263.78

Value

$191.84

PnL

-$71.94

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

SnakeBall

Bulls

Invested

$85.8

Value

$182.48

PnL

+$96.67

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$288.35

Value

$111.68

PnL

+$246.36

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

takeormake<$100

Bulls

Invested

$54.9

Value

$71.1

PnL

+$16.2

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$79.93

Value

$63.94

PnL

-$15.99

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$121.19

Value

$54.32

PnL

-$66.86

Record

41%

26-38 (64)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$66.07

Value

$33.04

PnL

-$33.03

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$91.67

Value

$18.44

PnL

+$42.93

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

balthazar<$100

Bulls

Invested

$6.4

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$10.4

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

lryyyCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$15.84

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$1.76

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.1

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$1.85

Record

42%

740-1034 (1774)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.