Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 217.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 49¢ · $84 held · ended Nov 13

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$84.5

Combined PnL

$1.34

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$50.19

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$1.11

Under2 traders

Total Value$34.31

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$0.23

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$32.09	$32.75	+$0.67	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
RN1<$100	Underavg 51¢	$31.22	$31.53	+$0.31	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$6.73	$6.75	+$0.02	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.92	$3.02	+$0.1	56% 324-253 (577)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.76	$2.99	+$0.24	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.78	-$0.08	70% 1698-734 (2432)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$2.39	$2.45	+$0.06	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.23	+$0.02	38% 512-824 (1336)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.09

Value

$32.75

PnL

+$0.67

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$31.22

Value

$31.53

PnL

+$0.31

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.92

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.24

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.08

Record

70%

1698-734 (2432)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

512-824 (1336)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.