Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 211.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 42¢ · $359 held · ended Nov 13

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$358.65

Combined PnL

$1.42

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 41.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$149.89

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$1.62

Over6 traders

Total Value$208.75

Total Shares374

Combined PnL-$0.2

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO goldmynameCTR	Underavg 42¢	$210.35	$147.05	+$1.73	51% 27-26 (53)
RN1<$100	Overavg 54¢	$99.32	$98.4	-$0.92	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 58¢	$66.28	$65.14	-$1.14	46% 1805-2097 (3902)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 56¢	$23.39	$23.8	+$0.42	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56.2¢	$15.33	$16.54	+$1.21	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.88	+$0.02	61% 985-619 (1604)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.34	$2.23	-$0.11	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.78	$2	+$0.21	54% 1122-947 (2069)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.14	$0.62	+$0.01	38% 512-824 (1336)

goldmynameCTR

Under

Invested

$210.35

Value

$147.05

PnL

+$1.73

Record

51%

27-26 (53)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$99.32

Value

$98.4

PnL

-$0.92

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$66.28

Value

$65.14

PnL

-$1.14

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$23.39

Value

$23.8

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$15.33

Value

$16.54

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

61%

985-619 (1604)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$1.78

Value

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.14

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

512-824 (1336)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.