Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 217.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 27¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 27¢

-52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares9,060

Combined PnL+$200.15

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares9,310

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 56¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$222.2	32% 62-129 (191)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 44¢	$4.1K	$2.4K	$-1.7K	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$525	$582.75	+$57.75	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$351.75	+$89.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$231	-$31.5
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$66.08	$42.48	-$23.6	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 56.8¢	$131.44	$20.33	+$25.96	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 55.7¢	$6.5	$7.76	+$1.26	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
RN1<$100	Overavg 14¢	$6.1	$7.46	+$1.36	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$5.8	$6.7	+$0.9	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.7	$3.35	+$0.65	56% 710-561 (1271)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.35	$2.25	-$0.1	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 34¢	$0.52	$0.65	+$0.14	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$4,977.28

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$222.2

Record

32%

62-129 (191)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$4,141.79

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$582.75

PnL

+$57.75

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Under$262.550¢+$89.25

Over$262.550¢-$31.5

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.08

Value

$42.48

PnL

-$23.6

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$131.44

Value

$20.33

PnL

+$25.96

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$6.5

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$1.26

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$6.1

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$1.36

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.65

Record

56%

710-561 (1271)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.