Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 216.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$548.53

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 72.5¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,233

Combined PnL+$388.18

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,250

Combined PnL+$160.35

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$380.95	32% 62-129 (191)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.1K	$954.82	-$5.7	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
latvian.demon	Underavg 71¢	$766.8	$777.6	+$10.8	15% 81-474 (555)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 34.5¢	$498.68	$678.68	+$180	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$525	$519.75	-$5.25	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$273	+$10.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$246.75	-$15.75
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$173.63	$179.17	+$5.55	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 78¢	$150.2	$135.54	-$3.59	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
RN1CTR	Overavg 34.7¢	$101.89	$82.32	-$19.57	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 41.5¢	$21.47	$23.16	+$1.69	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$13.34	$11.8	-$1.54	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$4.55	$4.7	+$0.15	43% 877-1157 (2034)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.1	+$0.02	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.88	-$0.23	48% 2658-2887 (5545)

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$1,062.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$380.95

Record

32%

62-129 (191)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,068.87

Value

$954.82

PnL

-$5.7

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$766.8

Value

$777.6

PnL

+$10.8

Record

15%

81-474 (555)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$498.68

Value

$678.68

PnL

+$180

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$525

Value

$519.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Invested

$173.63

Value

$179.17

PnL

+$5.55

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$150.2

Value

$135.54

PnL

-$3.59

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$101.89

Value

$82.32

PnL

-$19.57

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.47

Value

$23.16

PnL

+$1.69

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.34

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$1.54

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

877-1157 (2034)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.