Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 215.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$35.63

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 71.5¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$952.45

Total Shares1,446

Combined PnL+$78.31

Over4 traders

Total Value$445.62

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL-$113.93

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$528.54	$475.98	+$94.27	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$196.9	$214.3	+$17.4	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 46¢	$313.26	$177.06	-$136.2	50% 763-749 (1512)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 54¢	$280.04	$150.91	-$29.13	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
0xheavy888	Underavg 54¢	$135	$120	-$15	56% 695-541 (1236)
VE Venusian	Underavg 50¢	$66.09	$101.78	+$35.69	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 48¢	$56.31	$56.31	+$0	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$41.9	$46.66	+$4.76	59% 3973-2751 (6724)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 56¢	$53.33	$45.71	-$7.62	46% 3415-3955 (7370)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$7.5	$7.6	+$0.1	43% 877-1157 (2034)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$1.67	$1.76	+$0.09	48% 4837-5163 (10000)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$528.54

Value

$475.98

PnL

+$94.27

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$196.9

Value

$214.3

PnL

+$17.4

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$313.26

Value

$177.06

PnL

-$136.2

Record

50%

763-749 (1512)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$280.04

Value

$150.91

PnL

-$29.13

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$135

Value

$120

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

695-541 (1236)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$66.09

Value

$101.78

PnL

+$35.69

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$56.31

Value

$56.31

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.9

Value

$46.66

PnL

+$4.76

Record

59%

3973-2751 (6724)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$53.33

Value

$45.71

PnL

-$7.62

Record

46%

3415-3955 (7370)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

877-1157 (2034)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.