Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 211.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 41¢ · $594 held · ended Nov 15

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$594.27

Combined PnL

$37.29

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 41¢

-20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$333.34

Total Shares591

Combined PnL+$45.7

Over4 traders

Total Value$260.93

Total Shares522

Combined PnL-$8.41

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Underavg 48.3¢	$198.27	$242.05	+$43.78	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$212.84	$214.23	+$1.39	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$51.88	$51.94	+$0.06	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$49	$40.18	-$8.82	50% 665-662 (1327)
RN1<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$24.64	$26.28	+$1.65	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 43.6¢	$5.93	$6.08	+$0.15	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$4.76	$4.58	-$0.18	46% 3415-3955 (7370)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.5	+$0	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.74	$1.94	-$0.8	47% 684-778 (1462)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 44¢	$1.57	$1.61	+$0.04	56% 695-541 (1236)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 46¢	$0.85	$0.88	+$0.03	49% 2903-2977 (5880)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$198.27

Value

$242.05

PnL

+$43.78

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$212.84

Value

$214.23

PnL

+$1.39

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$51.88

Value

$51.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49

Value

$40.18

PnL

-$8.82

Record

50%

665-662 (1327)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$24.64

Value

$26.28

PnL

+$1.65

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$5.93

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.18

Record

46%

3415-3955 (7370)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.74

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$0.8

Record

47%

684-778 (1462)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.04

Record

56%

695-541 (1236)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.