Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 209.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$11.06

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,262

Combined PnL-$48.35

Under8 traders

Total Value$371.85

Total Shares747

Combined PnL+$37.29

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 50.1¢	$726.85	$646.09	-$80.76	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
NO NotJumpCTR	Overavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 43¢	$132.18	$155.23	+$23.05	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
RN1CTR	Overavg 46¢	$119.35	$151.62	+$32.27	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 43¢	$66.09	$77.62	+$11.53	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 48¢	$66.09	$69.53	+$3.44	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$40.9	$39.55	-$1.35	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$10.92	$11.05	+$0.13	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$10.54	$10.63	+$0.08	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 38¢	$9.88	$10.27	+$0.39	44% 350-441 (791)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 38¢	$4.88	$5.07	+$0.19	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 40¢	$4	$3.95	-$0.05	46% 1242-1436 (2678)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$726.85

Value

$646.09

PnL

-$80.76

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

NotJumpCTR

Over

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$132.18

Value

$155.23

PnL

+$23.05

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$119.35

Value

$151.62

PnL

+$32.27

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$66.09

Value

$77.62

PnL

+$11.53

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$66.09

Value

$69.53

PnL

+$3.44

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$40.9

Value

$39.55

PnL

-$1.35

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.92

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$10.54

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.88

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.39

Record

44%

350-441 (791)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.19

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.