Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 205.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$2.9

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 56.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$609.62

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL-$53.56

Under5 traders

Total Value$500.95

Total Shares1,070

Combined PnL+$50.66

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 58¢	$615.01	$558.21	-$56.8	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$525	$511.07	+$0.24	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$250.28	$285.32	+$36.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$225.75	-$36.75
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 41.8¢	$423.82	$476.2	+$52.38	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 52¢	$48.17	$51.41	+$3.24	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$14.14	$14.29	+$0.14	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$7.83	$7.02	-$0.81	44% 350-441 (791)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$2.4	$2.15	-$0.25	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$1.3	-$0.8	42% 771-1083 (1854)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$615.01

Value

$558.21

PnL

-$56.8

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$511.07

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Over$250.2850¢+$36.99

Under$262.550¢-$36.75

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$423.82

Value

$476.2

PnL

+$52.38

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$48.17

Value

$51.41

PnL

+$3.24

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.14

Value

$14.29

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.02

PnL

-$0.81

Record

44%

350-441 (791)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.8

Record

42%

771-1083 (1854)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.