Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 203.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 52¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$1.29

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 52¢

-16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,880

Combined PnL-$24.48

Under8 traders

Total Value$707.77

Total Shares1,779

Combined PnL+$23.19

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 75¢	$592.97	$573.2	-$19.77	62% 1090-679 (1769)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 52.9¢	$577.53	$572.82	-$4.72	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$525	$473.91	+$2.81	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$286.13	+$23.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$206.35	$187.78	-$20.82
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$286.16	$274.48	-$11.68	44% 248-322 (570)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 25¢	$139.9	$153.89	+$13.99	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49¢	$132.2	$126.8	-$5.4	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 24.5¢	$30.07	$54.89	+$24.82	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$53.9	$51.09	-$2.81	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$40.25	$44.28	+$4.03	44% 350-441 (791)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.38	+$0.13	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$0.85	$0.96	+$0.11	54% 6103-5202 (11305)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$592.97

Value

$573.2

PnL

-$19.77

Record

62%

1090-679 (1769)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$577.53

Value

$572.82

PnL

-$4.72

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$525

Value

$473.91

PnL

+$2.81

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Over$262.550¢+$23.63

Under$206.3550¢-$20.82

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$286.16

Value

$274.48

PnL

-$11.68

Record

44%

248-322 (570)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$139.9

Value

$153.89

PnL

+$13.99

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$132.2

Value

$126.8

PnL

-$5.4

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.07

Value

$54.89

PnL

+$24.82

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.9

Value

$51.09

PnL

-$2.81

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.25

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$4.03

Record

44%

350-441 (791)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.