Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 201.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 58¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$1.8K
-$6.55
57¢ → 58¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 57.1¢ | $846.53 | $844.98 | -$1.55 | 55% 2010-1678 (3688) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $476.47 | $476.57 | +$0.1 | 49% 2903-2977 (5880) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $264.39 | $258.24 | -$6.15 | 38% 1437-2336 (3773) |
 RN1 | Overavg 57¢ | $147.21 | $147.23 | +$0.02 | 54% 6103-5202 (11305) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $12.64 | $13.93 | +$1.29 | 48% 4837-5163 (10000) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $12 | $11.74 | -$0.26 | 38% 1426-2282 (3708) |
Invested
$846.53
Value
$844.98
PnL
-$1.55
Record
55%
2010-1678 (3688)
Invested
$476.47
Value
$476.57
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
2903-2977 (5880)
Invested
$264.39
Value
$258.24
PnL
-$6.15
Record
38%
1437-2336 (3773)
RN1Invested
$147.21
Value
$147.23
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
6103-5202 (11305)
Invested
$12.64
Value
$13.93
PnL
+$1.29
Record
48%
4837-5163 (10000)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.74
PnL
-$0.26
Record
38%
1426-2282 (3708)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.