Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 199.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 56¢ · $269 held · ended Nov 15

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$268.65

Combined PnL

-$0.87

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 56¢

-14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$232.55

Total Shares273

Combined PnL+$33.75

Under2 traders

Total Value$36.1

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$34.62

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 65.4¢	$169.06	$196.21	+$27.15	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$66.1	$33.9	-$32.2	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 68¢	$23.22	$27.32	+$4.1	47% 684-778 (1462)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 58¢	$6.53	$9.03	+$2.5	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$4.62	$2.2	-$2.42	49% 2903-2977 (5880)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$169.06

Value

$196.21

PnL

+$27.15

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.1

Value

$33.9

PnL

-$32.2

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$23.22

Value

$27.32

PnL

+$4.1

Record

47%

684-778 (1462)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$6.53

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.62

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$2.42

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.